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CAT Spotlight – Iceland

  • Date27 February, 2025
  • Author Paul Isaac
  • Location EMEA

In this CAT spotlight, we focus on Iceland, situated on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a country prone to volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and glacial floods.

The most well-known CAT event in recent times was the March 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. Most will remember the disruption the ash cloud caused across Europe’s aviation industry, which cost the industry over £1.2 billion and resulted in more than 100,000 flights being cancelled.

But the impact of this event wasn’t just confined to the European markets.

  • The closure of European airspace was so far-reaching that it affected Kenyan farmers. Their horticulture industry lost an average of $3 million a day due to fresh flowers destined primarily for the UK being left to rot[1].
  • Glacier ice melted, which, in turn, caused glacial flooding throughout Iceland.

15 years on, and it seems there is an increased likelihood of volcanic activity in Iceland. Updated models[2] indicate the amount of magma beneath the Svartsengi area has reached levels comparable to those before previous eruptions, suggesting a higher probability of an eruption.

While the timing of volcanic eruptions is not as predictable as we might like, what is entirely predictable is that they will happen going forward.   Insured losses typically only represent 10% of total economic losses following a volcanic eruption[3] – but questions will inevitably be asked as to how the Market may respond to:

  • Losses arising due to people/tourists being unable to travel
  • Losses arising due to non-delivery of air freight when there has been no material damage event
  • Contingent BI losses due to airport closures, where locations within airports sustain no material damage

By Danny Brett and Paul Isaac.

[1] https://www.discover-the-world.com/study-trips/blog/eyjafjallajokull-eruption-case-study/#:~:text=Ten%20million%20passengers%20were%20affected,impact%20felt%20by%20Kenyan%20farmers.

[2] https://en.vedur.is/volcanoes/fagradalsfjall-eruption/news-and-alerts/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[3] https://www.swissre.com/risk-knowledge/mitigating-climate-risk/volcanoes.html