Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton made landfall late on October 9th, 2024, in the vicinity of Sarasota, on the Western coast of Florida, as a strong Category 3 Hurricane. This storm came only two weeks after Hurricane Helene made landfall to the North of Florida around the Big Bend near Tallahassee.

Milton has been recorded as the second most powerful storm from the Gulf of Mexico, behind Hurricane Rita which hit in 2005. Peak sustained winds were recorded at circa 185mph with a pressure of 187mb. Despite a significant wind speed reduction from its peak at landfall, the storm’s excessive rainfall and storm surge caused significant flooding. Another significant factor of Milton was the unprecedented level of 127 tornado warnings issued by the State of Florida, with 27 confirmed as touching down. Numbers such as these have not been recorded in one day since the Super Outbreak near Alabama, recorded in 2011.

Once again, this year’s hurricane season has showcased the exceptional intensification of storms due to abnormally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Hurricane Milton’s vast size contributed to its unpredictable path, strength, and volume fluctuations. Even hours before landfall, forecasters had to make several adjustments, making it challenging to accurately anticipate the storm’s initial impact.

Hurricane Milton serves as yet another stark reminder of the increasing unpredictability of storms. The Atlantic’s near-record-high water temperatures can cause tropical storms to rapidly intensify into powerful and life-threatening hurricanes.

Timeline and Path

Early formation and intensification

• 5th October – 6th October: forming initially as a Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico,  close to Tampico, the system intensified to a Category 1 Hurricane and carried on its path tracking towards Merida and Cancun, Mexico. In these 24 hours, the storm intensified from a Cat 1 to a CAT 5 with 160mph windspeed, before dropping back to a Cat 4.
• 8th October – 9th October: Intensification occurred again, with CAT 5 strength winds and pressures recorded. The path passed Cancun to the Northeast with no significant damage recorded. Its path continued Northeast heading for Tampa.

Landfall

• 9th October: Early on the 9th of October, the storm downgraded to a CAT 4 and then again to a CAT 3 with sustained windspeeds of around 11mph at the point of landfall, near Sarasota, Florida, USA.
• 9th October: Near Lake Manatee, Milton downgraded to a CAT 2 and continued inland with a path tracking across the State, passing close to Fort Meade. It then downgraded again to a CAT 1 just before Poinciana. It remained a CAT 1 until it hit the Atlantic coast just above Cape Canaveral.

Fatalities

The death toll stands at 27, with many still missing and US officials saying that the number of lost lives could well increase.

Power Outages

According to Power Outages US, on October 10th, over 3.3 million homes and businesses were without power across the affected states.

Highest outages were recorded in the following counties:

Lake	108,465
Volusia	172,601
Pasco	173,358
Polk	201,715
Manatee	203,709
Sarasota	223,880
Lee	233,982
Pinellas	413,579
Hillsborough	507,488

Utilities continue to work tirelessly to restore electricity, but widespread damage to infrastructure has slowed the process. As of late October 15th, the updated outages were around 160,000, with nearly 100,000 of those recorded in Hillsborough.

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Flooding

Eleven million people were stated to be at risk of flooding, with historic levels of precipitation recorded across multiple counties in the State.  St Petersburg recorded 18 inches of rain, causing severe transportation issues and affecting the relief efforts.

Damage Assessment

Initial damage estimates for Hurricane Milton range from $30 to $50 billion. However, the full extent of property damage, access restrictions, power outages, and disruptions to supply chains remains to be assessed. Insurance coverage will also be a major concern again, as many policies may not include flood damage coverage or may require separate extensions. There are also bound to be arguments stated over damage being attributed to the correct dominant cause, Helene, Milton or even possibly presented separately due to the tornadoes, especially if they occurred before landfall!